Published: Wed, September 13, 2017
World Media | By Shelia Harmon

NHC: Hurricane Jose not a concern to the US

NHC: Hurricane Jose not a concern to the US

There is generally not a dominant weather feature that is steering the storm, so model forecasts can vary widely between each other and from run to run.

"There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy, as Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the next 72 hours", the National Hurricane Center said in its online forecast discussion.

But models can have trouble forecasting unusual tracks such as Jose's expected path. "None of the computer models, at this point, have it headed toward our state".

It's still way too early to know exactly where Jose will end up, but it wouldn't be a bad idea for the United States to get comfortable with another hurricane making landfall.

The latest European model shows Jose circling around the west Atlantic for much of the upcoming week.

Caicos before Irma
Caicos before Irma

As for its forecast, hurricanes in this part of the Atlantic often race out to sea and into oblivion, but that won't be the case with Jose.

The National Hurricane Center recognizes this uncertainty in its Tuesday morning forecasts for Jose, saying "after (three days), the confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges significantly". The loop back toward the coast comes after Jose is expected to travel southwest - essentially backwards - and then move closer to shore. But with Harvey and Irma, it has now experienced two Category 4 landfalls in 16 days.

Powerful Hurricane Jose missed the Leeward Islands this weekend, but it might have a second chance to strike the Caribbean and possibly Florida, forecasters said.

If that happens, by September 18 it could again be pointed at the islands all but destroyed by Hurricane Irma last week. But hurricanes into November and even December are not unheard of.

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